Update, 21 September to 1 October 2026

0. The ten-day picture in five lines

1. There was no second hike and no duty cut. October pump prices are unchanged at diesel Tk 135, petrol Tk 160, octane Tk 165 and kerosene Tk 155. The government explicitly chose not to cut fuel taxes.
2. The "October LC cliff" has been pushed back, not removed. On 29 Sep the Finance Division gave BPC a Tk 4,500 crore interest-free loan, the first in 11 years. That covers roughly 7–8 weeks of the diesel loss run-rate est..
3. Pass-through is now visible and larger than the gazette. The gazetted bus fare rose 17 paisa/km (+6.7% metro). Realised fares on many trips rose Tk 5–20 in Dhaka and Tk 50–100 on long-distance routes. Truck charters rose ~19–40% per trip. Green chilli, eggplant, flour, eggs, milk and lentils all rose within a week.
4. Furnace oil rose again (+Tk 11.92 to Tk 108.78/L from 1 Oct). Qatar extended LNG force majeure to Asian buyers through November. The power cost base is climbing again going into winter.
5. Officials now say no further hike is planned. The State Minister said so on 23 Sep, and so did the BPC chairman on 29 Sep. Against that, the State Minister also said the full formula would put diesel at ~Tk 205, which leaves a gap of about Tk 70/L. It does not narrow it.

1. Prices, fiscal decisions, BPC financing, IFIs

1a. Pump prices for October: unchanged

• On 30 Sep the Energy and Mineral Resources Division told the BPC chairman to keep the status quo for October. From 1 Oct: diesel Tk 135, octane Tk 165, petrol Tk 160, kerosene Tk 155. The stated aim is to give "some relief to the market and transport sectors." Source: DesheBideshe (Bangla), 30 Sep 2026, https://www.deshebideshe.com/456367/remaining-unchanged-in-october/
• Corroborated by TBS, 30 Sep 2026, https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/energy/fuel-prices-remain-unchanged-october-1558911 (TBS says the announcement came via BERC, "with the approval of the competent authorities"), and bdnews24, 30 Sep 2026, https://bdnews24.com/business/f3ub8nrf1p
• Discrepancy to note: TBS attributes the announcement to BERC, while DesheBideshe says the Energy Division instructed BPC. Both agree on the prices.

1b. Furnace oil: up for October

• BERC set furnace oil at Tk 108.78/L from 00:00 on 1 Oct, up Tk 11.92 from Tk 96.86 (+12.3%). The price is based on average Platts from 29 Aug to 28 Sep, September crude CIF, and the exchange rate. Source: bdnews24, 30 Sep 2026, https://bdnews24.com/business/198sgq9tlw ; TBS, 30 Sep 2026, https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/energy/furnace-oil-price-rises-tk839-tk10878-amid-global-oil-volatility-1558606
  • Discrepancy: the TBS headline says "+Tk 8.39", but its body text and bdnews24 both say +Tk 11.92 from Tk 96.86. I use Tk 11.92.
  • TBS gives the path in between: Tk 113.54 was cut to Tk 109.10 at end-June, then cut further to Tk 96.86, then raised to Tk 108.78.
• Jet A-1 for October: not confirmed.
• LPG for October: BERC normally announces it in the first days of the month. Not yet published as of 1 Oct.

1c. Duty/VAT cut: considered and declined

• The government declined a fuel tax cut. Fuel carries about 32% in cumulative duties and taxes, levied on invoice value, so revenue rises automatically with world prices. NBR fuel-tax collections rose ~90% in the first two months of FY27 (from ~Tk 2,000 crore to ~Tk 3,800 crore). TBS ties the refusal to the pay-scale cost (Tk 1.05 lakh crore over 17 months). Zahid Hussain: "The government has shifted from formula-based policy to decision-based policy." TBS reports that at least 55 countries used direct fiscal measures. Source: TBS, 23 Sep 2026, https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/energy/govt-shies-away-fuel-tax-cut-amid-pay-hike-1551121
• Experts (M Shamsul Alam of CAB, Khondaker Golam Moazzem of CPD, Selim Raihan of SANEM) called for cutting fuel import taxes. The structure is 6% CD + 15% VAT + 2% AT + 2% AIT ≈ 25% on diesel imports. Tk 10,555 crore was collected from diesel, crude and petrol imports in Jan–Aug 2026, of which diesel was Tk 8,042 crore. Source: The Daily Star, 22 Sep 2026, https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/experts-call-cutting-fuel-import-taxes-4279421
• An op-ed puts taxes at ~Tk 38 of the claimed Tk 52/L diesel "subsidy" and proposes a fixed per-litre tax, citing Pakistan, Nepal and India, and Turkey's automatic stabiliser. Its Boro estimate is +3% cost per bigha, or ~7% in high-diesel areas, with no method given. Source: Daily Waadaa (op-ed), 24 Sep 2026, https://www.dailywaadaa.com/promissory-note/2026/09/24/a-regressive-inflationary-tax-masked-as-a-subsidy
• Note: the tax burden estimates now differ by source: Tk 32.44/L in the original analysis, ~25% (Daily Star), ~32% (TBS) and ~Tk 38/L (Daily Waadaa). They are not measured on the same basis. P5 should use NBR's own per-litre figure.

1d. BPC financing and LC status

• The Finance Division approved a Tk 4,500 crore interest-free loan to BPC, notified by letter on 29 Sep. Terms: repayment in half-yearly instalments over 5 years, including a 6-month grace period. It comes from the FY2025-26 operational-loan budget. It is the first such loan in 11 years. BPC had warned it could run out of LC funds in October. State Minister Anindya Islam Amit: diesel "would have cost about Tk 205 a litre if the automatic pricing mechanism had been fully applied." BPC also needs Tk 690 crore by December for the SPM loan, plus ITFC payments. Source: The Daily Star, 30 Sep 2026, https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/after-11yrs-bpc-gets-tk-4500cr-loan-buy-fuel-4286591
• Background: between 11 Mar and 8 Sep BPC sent 10 letters to the ministry; the last one asked for PMO attention. BPC Chairman Md Rafiqul Islam said opening LCs for October would be "difficult" without intervention. FY2025-26 fuel imports were a record $10.63 bn (+107%). Source: Ajker Patrika (Bangla), 21 Sep 2026, https://www.ajkerpatrika.com/business/ajpf8q18umzou
• BPC chairman on 29 Sep: "we will try with our capacity so that prices never have to rise again." He said finances had been discussed with the Finance Ministry and were at a "satisfactory position", stocks were ~45 days, and procurement was complete through December. Source: Bangla TV (minor outlet, not corroborated by a major outlet in my searches), 29 Sep 2026, https://banglatv.tv/news/2026/09/110073/
• Coverage est.: Tk 4,500 crore ÷ ~Tk 85 crore/day post-hike diesel loss (the impact_analysis estimate) ≈ 53 days. As a share of the Tk 15,000–20,000 crore extra working capital BPC says it needs: 22.5–30%. So the next BPC cash crunch plausibly falls in late November–December, the same window as Boro irrigation demand. This is an inference from the loan size and the loss run-rate, not a reported date.
• Warning about a false lead: search engines return a widely syndicated story that BPC had "$670 m overdue as of 30 September" ($260 m ITFC, $410 m others). That story is from 3 Oct 2023 (TBS, https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/energy/urgent-dollar-support-sought-fuel-import-711030). It is not 2026 data, so do not use it. I could not confirm any 2026 figure for overdue BPC dollar payments.

1e. IMF / World Bank / ADB

• ADB Asian Development Outlook (Sept 2026), released 23 Sep: FY27 growth cut to 4.0% (from 4.5%); FY26 growth given as 3.7%; FY27 inflation 9.0% (FY26 8.7%). Industry growth 3.3% because of energy shortages. "Rising global energy and shipping costs have transmitted directly into Bangladesh's domestic market." Sources: The Daily Star, 23 Sep 2026, https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/adb-cuts-bangladesh-growth-forecast-4-fy27-4280746 ; TBS, https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/adb-lowers-bangladeshs-growth-forecast-4-fy2027-1551156 ; ADB edition page https://www.adb.org/outlook/editions/september-2026
• IMF: I found no new IMF statement dated 21 Sep–1 Oct. Last confirmed context: Bangladesh formally requested a new programme (bdnews24, 4 Jun 2026, updated 8 Sep 2026, https://bdnews24.com/economy/f032310c9e5c), and IMF staff were "planning a visit". The date of a mission within the window is not confirmed.
• World Bank: I found no Bangladesh-specific statement in the window. The October Bangladesh Development Update / South Asia Development Update is not confirmed as released as of 1 Oct.
• Bangladesh Bank: the MPC (23 Sep) held the policy rate at 9.50%. It named the fuel hike, the new pay scale and volatile energy prices as inflation risks. The 12-month average inflation was 8.66% in August, against the 7.5% target. Source: The Daily Star, 24 Sep 2026, https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/bb-keeps-policy-rate-unchanged-amid-inflation-risks-4281086 ; also TBS, https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/banking/bb-announces-monetary-policy-q2-fy27-1558381

2. Pass-through already visible

2a. Bus fares (gazetted)

• The Road Transport and Highways Division issued a notification on 22 Sep, published 23 Sep. It raises fares for diesel-run buses and minibuses by 17 paisa/km. Dhaka/Chattogram metro goes Tk 2.53 → 2.70/km, long-distance/inter-district Tk 2.23 → 2.40/km. CNG-run buses are unchanged. Owners had asked for 20 paisa. Sources: The Daily Star, 22 Sep 2026, https://www.thedailystar.net/news/transport/news/bus-fares-rise-17-paisa-km-amid-fuel-price-hike-4279791 ; Prothom Alo (Bangla), https://www.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/078dhpl08q ; TBS Bangla, https://www.tbsnews.net/bangla/bangladesh/news-details-542771
• Minister Shaikh Rabiul Alam warned that overchargers face fines and could lose route permits. He said there would be no rail fare rise for now. Source: The Daily Star, 23 Sep 2026, https://www.thedailystar.net/news/transport/news/charge-passengers-extra-risk-losing-route-permits-rabiul-warns-bus-operators-4279826
• Pass-through ratio est.: metro 17/253 = +6.7%, inter-district 17/223 = +7.6%, against diesel +17.4%. That gives 0.39–0.44, above the 0.30 assumed from April. The absolute metro rate (Tk 2.70) matches the impact analysis forecast (~Tk 2.69). The inter-district rate (Tk 2.40) beat the forecast (~Tk 2.35).
• New minimum fares and a minibus per-km rate: not confirmed for this revision.

2b. Realised fares

• Dhaka: +Tk 5–20 on many short trips (Mohammadpur, Farmgate, Motijheel). One route went Tk 20 → 30. Long-distance fares rose Tk 50–100; Selfie Paribahan went Tk 150 → 250; a Bhuiyan Paribahan bus charged Tk 50 where the revised fare was ~Tk 43. Source: Dhaka Tribune, 23 Sep 2026, https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/dhaka/420525/bus-fare-chaos-hits-commuters-after-fuel-hike
• Fares rose before the notification, by up to Tk 100 on long-distance routes. Source: Bangla Tribune (Bangla), ~22 Sep 2026, https://www.banglatribune.com/others/969987/ (full slug in search results)
• Chattogram: minimum bus fares +Tk 3–10; Dhaka–Ctg up to +Tk 100 (Tk 700 → 800 on some services); minibuses +Tk 3–8; CNG tempos on Route 3 Tk 5 → 7. Source: Dhaka Tribune, 25 Sep 2026, https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/420673/fuel-price-hike-pushes-up-transport-fares-in
• Islam Paribahan raised Dhaka–Thakurgaon to Tk 700. The Bangladesh Inland Container Depots Association raised handling charges by 9.85%. Source: The Daily Star, Sep 2026 (exact day not captured; after 21 Sep), https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/fuel-shock-ripple-across-economy-4279446
• CNG auto-rickshaw fares: no BRTA revision found. They are CNG, not liquid fuel, so no revision is expected. Realised CNG auto fares in the window: not confirmed.

2c. Launch fares

• Launch fares rose 7.54%: +23 paisa/km for the first 100 km, +20 paisa/km beyond, minimum fare Tk 35. Owners had sought +51–60% (Tk 2.95 → 4.45/km for the first 100 km). Announced by Shipping Minister Shaikh Rabiul Alam. Source: Views Bangladesh, 23 Sep 2026, https://viewsbangladesh.com/passenger-launch-fares-hiked-by-754/
• Operators raised fares before the revised rates took effect. Dhaka–Barishal single cabin went Tk 800–1,000 → 1,200–1,400, deck Tk 250–300 → 350; Dhaka–Bhola Tk 500 → 600; Dhaka–Chandpur Tk 130–150 → 200. BIWTA had "not received official notice" at the time. Source: The Daily Star, 23 Sep 2026, https://www.thedailystar.net/news/transport/news/launch-fares-rise-revised-rates-take-effect-4281286
• Discrepancy: the Rabiul warning story (Daily Star, 23 Sep) says launch fares were still "pending review". Views Bangladesh reports the decision the same day. Treat 23 Sep as the decision date and the exact gazette date as unconfirmed.

2d. Truck freight (no regulated fare)

• Dhaka–Chattogram Tk 30–31k → 38–40k; Jashore–Dhaka (vegetables) Tk 22–25k → 31k; Dhaka–Bogura Tk 20–22k → 28–30k; Ctg port–Dhaka +Tk 5–6k. Source: bdnews24 Bangla, 23 Sep 2026, https://bangla.bdnews24.com/business/9yujoaf44u
• Kushtia/Pabna–Ctg Tk 28–30k → 35–36k; rice from Naogaon/Dinajpur to Ctg Tk 30–32k → 40–42k; Ctg–Cox's Bazar +Tk 4k. Source: Bangla Tribune, 23 Sep 2026, https://www.banglatribune.com/country/chitagong/970236/
• Panchagarh vegetable truck Tk 26k → 31k; Kushtia rice +Tk 4–5k per vehicle. Source: bdnews24 Bangla, 25 Sep 2026, https://bangla.bdnews24.com/business/yfhi4pg365
• Realised freight change est. (midpoints): Dhaka–Ctg +27%; Naogaon/Dinajpur–Ctg +31%; Jashore–Dhaka +32%; Panchagarh +19%. The impact analysis forecast of +8–12% was far too low. The diesel cost per trip alone (+Tk 1,660 on Dhaka–Ctg) explains only a fifth to a quarter of the reported Tk 7–9k rise. The rest is margin-taking in an unregulated market, or anticipation of further hikes.

2e. Food and commodities

• Kawran Bazar, Mohammadpur and Town Hall markets, week of 25 Sep: packaged flour Tk 70–75 → 85/kg; atta Tk 60–65 → 70; paijam/mid-grade rice Tk 56–58 → 60–62; round eggplant Tk 120 → 160; long eggplant Tk 80 → 100; green chilli Tk 80–100 → 160–180; okra/bottle gourd Tk 50–60 → 70–80; farm eggs Tk 150 → 160/dozen; coarse lentils Tk 90–95 → 100; liquid milk +Tk 10/L across brands; soybean 2L Tk 398 → 404, 5L Tk 975 → 988. Traders blame transport. Consumers allege opportunism. Sources: bdnews24 Bangla, 25 Sep 2026, https://bangla.bdnews24.com/business/yfhi4pg365 ; bdnews24 English, 25 Sep 2026, https://bdnews24.com/business/33fvfb038q
• Chaktai–Khatunganj wholesale: onions Tk 32–33 → 38–40/kg in three days; rice +Tk 20 per bag wholesale, +Tk 1–2/kg retail. Source: Bangla Tribune, 23 Sep 2026 (URL above).
• Some of this, especially vegetables and chilli, overlaps with rain and seasonal supply effects. The fuel share cannot be separated from these reports.
• Edible oil: the Commerce Minister said a decision on raising (edible) oil prices would follow a review. Source: Somoyer Konthosor (Bangla), 30 Sep 2026, https://www.somoyerkonthosor.com/index.php/post/2026/09/30/6abcf00d51d54

2f. Inflation data

• BBS September 2026 CPI: not released as of 1 Oct. BBS normally publishes in the first week of the following month. The latest print is still August: 8.26% (BSS, https://www.bssnews.net/news/421999). The September print will capture only about 9 days of post-hike prices. The October print (due early November) is the first full-month test.

2g. Electricity, load-shedding, LNG

• On 21 Sep (hike day) the evening peak shortfall was 1,848 MW at 19:30, up from 419 MW the day before. At 21:00, demand was 17,339 MW and generation 15,767 MW. Gas supply was 2,591 mmcfd (domestic 1,588, LNG 1,003). Source: Samakal (Bangla), 22 Sep 2026, https://samakal.com/bangladesh/article/374083/
• Load-shedding figures for 22 Sep–1 Oct: not confirmed. I found no reliable daily PGCB-based report for those dates.
• Qatar LNG: QatarEnergy extended force majeure for Asian buyers (including Bangladesh and Pakistan) through November, and for Edison to early December. Qatar's exports were down 96%: 18 cargoes to end-August against 509 in the same period of 2025. Sources: The Daily Star, 29 Sep 2026, https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/news/qatar-extends-lng-supply-disruption-notices-bangladesh-and-other-buyers-4285526 ; The National, 28 Sep 2026, https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/09/28/qatar-extends-lng-force-majeure-as-hormuz-disruption-threatens-winter-supply/ ; Bloomberg, 28 Sep 2026, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-28/qatar-extends-lng-force-majeure-as-hormuz-disruptions-drag-on (paywalled; headline only)
• The National says LNG prices in Europe and Asia are near their highest since late 2022 (28 Sep, URL above).
• Electricity tariff: no new BERC retail tariff decision in the window. The last one was the June 2026 average +16.68% (Prothom Alo, https://en.prothomalo.com/business/local/x730jsk72r).

3. Social response and government messaging

3a. Protests and opposition

• 21 Sep (hike day): Jamaat-e-Islami held rallies at Baitul Mukarram and Mohakhali. NCP held a Banglamotor procession, Islami Andolan one from Paltan, and Gonotantrik Jukta Front one at the Press Club. Also protesting: Khelafat Majlis, AB Party, Labour Party, Nezame Islam, Workers Party, Bhashani Janashakti Party and Jatri Kalyan Samity. Demands: withdraw the hike, cut fuel taxes and duties, cut government spending, publish the price workings. NCP's Nahid Islam called the hike "unjustified." Sources: The Daily Star, 22 Sep 2026, https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/jamaat-ncp-other-parties-protest-fuel-price-hike-4279416 ; Prothom Alo (Bangla), 21 Sep 2026, https://www.prothomalo.com/politics/b80k4gi0yr
• 22 Sep: NCP procession in Chattogram demanding immediate withdrawal. Source: TBS, 22 Sep 2026, https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/ncp-protests-against-fuel-price-hike-demands-immediate-withdrawal-ctg-1550966
• Jamaat also protested in Gazipur, Cumilla and Chattogram (Bangla local outlets; e.g. https://www.dhakapost.com/politics/484868).
• No hartal was called (confirmed absent in Prothom Alo, 21 Sep). One search-engine summary claimed a hartal. It traced back to unrelated or old content.
• No nationwide transport or truck strike in 2026 was found. Search results for "nationwide truck strike from Friday" are from 2022 (TBS node 325195), and "3-day transport strike" results are the Philippines (Philstar, 28 Sep 2026). Do not code either as a Bangladesh event.
• RMG: no fuel-linked RMG strike or protest confirmed in the window. BGMEA statements that turn up in search are from 2021–2022 hikes.

3b. Government messaging

• Zahed Ur Rahman (PM's information adviser), 22 Sep: the hike "is causing and will continue to cause hardship". The government will expand food assistance, OMS and Family Card programmes. Fares would be adjusted "by a reasonable amount". About Tk 48,000 crore was budgeted for subsidies this year and nearly half was spent in 2.5 months, a pace that would need Tk 1.25–1.5 lakh crore a year. He said the hike was not an IMF requirement. Source: Daily Waadaa, 22 Sep 2026, https://www.dailywaadaa.com/bangladesh/2026/09/22/adviser-zahed-defends-fuel-price-hike-says-subsidy-burden-needs-balancing
• Zahed also said: "If I were not in government and were an activist, I would protest", but that he would not demand the elected government's resignation. He noted the timing ahead of local elections. Source: TBS (date not captured; after 21 Sep), https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/politics/i-would-have-demanded-hasinas-resignation-over-fuel-price-hikes-not-now-zahed
• State Minister Anindya Islam Amit, 23 Sep: no plan for further increases, and prices will be cut "if opportunities arise". Source: Zoom Bangla (minor outlet), 23 Sep 2026, https://zoombangla.com/ (article slug in search results). The same minister gave the Tk 205 formula figure (Daily Star, 30 Sep, above).
• Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed, 26 Sep (rally): domestic prices will be cut proportionally if world prices fall. Source: Khobor Sangjog (Bangla, minor outlet), 26 Sep 2026, https://www.khoborsangjog.com/national/125004/
• PM Tarique Rahman: I found no new PM statement on fuel in the window. The last confirmed one is still the 5 Sep apology.
• Targeted relief: beyond Zahed's 22 Sep statement of intent, I found no concrete new Family Card, TCB or OMS allocation, card count or start date. A TCB plan for open-market edible-oil sales outside the Smart Family Card, piloted from September, predates the hike (Financial Express, https://today.thefinancialexpress.com.bd/metro-news/tcb-plans-oms-of-essentials-outside-smart-family-card-1786730058).
• Pay-scale grievance: it is now institutionally recognised. Bangladesh Bank named the pay scale as an inflation risk (Daily Star, 24 Sep). TBS linked the refusal to cut taxes to the pay-hike bill (23 Sep). Private-sector employees quoted by BBC Bangla (via TBS Bangla, 22 Sep 2026, https://www.tbsnews.net/bangla/bbc/news-details-542266) contrast civil-servant raises with their own position. BBC Bangla notes no direct relief was announced.

3c. Local elections: a political calendar item for P1/P4

• The tentative Union Parishad schedule had its first phase on 12 Nov 2026 (Dhaka Tribune, 14 Sep 2026, https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/election/419817/first-phase-of-up-elections-on-nov-12). On 24 Sep, Election Commissioner Anwarul Islam Sarker said UP polls will be held around January 2027, after the Nov–Dec exams, with completion by 6 Jun 2027 (Dhaka Tribune, 24 Sep 2026, https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/election/420597/ec-anwarul-local-government-polls-in-january). No final schedule has been gazetted.

4. Global driver

• Brent: readings for 30 Sep 2026 differ by source and time of day. Tradingeconomics gives $97.82 (+1.73% d/d, +8.1% m/m) (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil). Fortune gives $102.56 at 09:25 ET, against $91.94 a month earlier (https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-09-30-2026/). Wikipedia's oil chronology records ~$103.08 on 23 Sep (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%E2%80%932028_world_oil_market_chronology). Safe statement: Brent traded roughly $92–103 in the window and ended September higher than it started. Use a single exchange settlement (ICE) before quoting a precise close.
• Hormuz: sources disagree, so describe it as a partial, contested recovery, not "closed" and not "normal".
  • Oil flows are rising. Saudi shipments through Hormuz went ~1.0 → 2.58 mb/d in September after Houthi attacks on the Red Sea route (a drone strike hit the East-West pipeline on 10 Sep). Combined Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb and Suez flows were 9.99 mb/d, −61% vs February. Iran exports ~0.1 mb/d under the US blockade. Source: The National, 29 Sep 2026, https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/09/29/oil-flows-through-strait-of-hormuz-rise-on-saudi-pivot-as-red-sea-traffic-plunges/
  • Tradingeconomics (30 Sep) cites Hormuz flows of ~13.2 mb/d this month, with Saudi restarting East-West pipeline shipments (URL above). A CNBC headline of 30 Sep reports crude exports through Hormuz "hit prewar levels, but fuel shipments remain constrained" (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/iran-war-strait-hormuz-gulf-oil-fuel.html; body not retrievable, 403). Refined products, which is what Bangladesh imports, are the constrained part.
  • The Daily Star (29 Sep) still describes the strait as "closed" for Qatari LNG.
  • Diplomacy: on ~25 Sep at the UNGA, Iranian FM Araghchi offered a seven-day plan to reopen Hormuz if the US lifted its naval blockade and sanctions. Trump rejected it ("would not be acceptable") on 26 Sep. Source: NPR via KAXE, 26 Sep 2026, https://www.kaxe.org/news/2026-09-26/trump-calls-iranian-plan-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-not-acceptable
• Qatar LNG force majeure: extended through November for Asian buyers (§2g).

5. Implications for each study

P1 (fuel-shock panel): W0 timing

• No new shock landed in the window, and the next scheduled decision point is ~30–31 Oct, when the price for November is announced. The BPC loan makes an October emergency hike less likely. Officials publicly rule out further hikes, but the formula gap has widened (Tk 205 vs Tk 135) and Brent rose in September. Recommendation: keep the 20 Oct W0 completion target. Treat 30 Oct as a hard stop, because the November price notice comes out that day or the next. Record each interview's date so that any respondent after an announcement can be flagged.
• W0 is now explicitly a post-September-hike, pre-next-shock baseline, not a pre-shock baseline. The fare notification (22 Sep), freight jumps and food price rises have already happened. Add a recall item on fares and food spending "before 21 September" if the aim is to measure the September step.
• The loan covers ~53 days of diesel losses est., so the next BPC cash crunch plausibly falls in late Nov–Dec. That supports a W1 in early December.
• Local elections moved to ~January 2027 (EC, 24 Sep). The W0 and W1 windows avoid campaign season, but W2 may not.

P4 (who gets the blame): collection window and events

• The current window in studies/p4_who_gets_the_blame/src/common.py is "2026": ("2026-03-01", "2026-09-21"). That ends on the hike day and cuts off the entire reaction: protests (21–22 Sep), fare notifications (22–23 Sep), the tax-cut refusal (23 Sep), the BPC loan (29–30 Sep) and the October hold (30 Sep).
• Recommendation: extend the 2026 window end to at least 2026-10-31. That captures the full post-hike month and the November price decision, which is expected around 30–31 Oct. Re-run then. If a hike or duty cut comes on the November notice, extend to 30 Nov for a clean post-event slice. This is the "second hike / duty cut" watch item from project/todo_for_owner.md: it did not land, but the window must be extended anyway to observe the 21 Sep event at all.
• New events for the pipeline are at the end of this file. The 21 Sep protests fall on the same day as hike_2026_sep, so they cannot be separated in an event study. They are listed for annotation only.

P3 (Boro decisions): timing

• The November survey timing still holds. Diesel stays at Tk 135 through October. The November price, announced ~31 Oct, is the price farmers will face at planting, so field P3 after the November notice and record the pump price and the local open-market price at each interview.
• No Boro diesel or irrigation support was announced in the window (not found). Procurement-price news in the window: none found.
• Truck freight for rice rose ~31% on the Naogaon/Dinajpur–Ctg route est.. That is an output-side margin squeeze on top of the input side. Add a freight or farm-gate question.
• Estimates of per-bigha cost now vary: +3–7% (Daily Waadaa op-ed, no method) against +Tk 420/bigha ≈ 10.5–12% of a Tk 3,500–4,000 baseline (impact_analysis est.). P3 should measure this, not assume it.

P5 (cash or cheap fuel): policy options

• Duty cut: considered and rejected on fiscal grounds (TBS, 23 Sep). NBR's fuel-tax take is up ~90%. P5 can now frame an explicit "recycle the windfall" option (earmark the ad-valorem windfall for transfers) and a switch from ad-valorem to a specific (per-litre) tax, which experts and the op-ed raised.
• The government chose a BPC loan, not a subsidy or a price rise. The Tk 4,500 crore is repayable, so the deficit is deferred to BPC's balance sheet. Add "quasi-fiscal deferral" as a status-quo arm in the vignettes.
• Targeted relief is announced in principle (Zahed, 22 Sep: OMS, Family Card, food assistance) with no reported amount, coverage or date. This makes a good, current anchor for P5's "promised but undelivered" transfer-credibility treatment.
• The claim "prices will be cut if world prices fall" (State Minister 23 Sep; Home Minister 26 Sep) is now on record. It is useful for P5's asymmetry and credibility questions, and as a claim P4 can track.

6. New events for the P4 pipeline

Format matches EVENTS in studies/p4_who_gets_the_blame/src/common.py:

("2026-09-21", "protests_sep", "Opposition rallies vs Tk 20 hike (Jamaat, NCP, others); same day as hike_2026_sep, annotate only"),
("2026-09-22", "bus_fare_sep", "Bus/minibus fares +17 paisa/km notified (metro Tk 2.53->2.70, intercity 2.23->2.40)"),
("2026-09-23", "tax_cut_refused", "Govt declines fuel tax cut; launch fares +7.54%; BB holds policy rate at 9.5%"),
("2026-09-29", "bpc_loan", "Finance Division approves Tk 4,500 cr interest-free loan to BPC (reported 30 Sep)"),
("2026-09-30", "oct_price_hold", "October pump prices held at Sep levels; furnace oil +Tk 11.92 to Tk 108.78 from 1 Oct"),

Watch-only; add only if it happens:

• ~2026-10-31: November price notice (hike, hold, cut or duty change). This is the next decisive event.
• Early Oct: BBS September CPI release (date unconfirmed).

7. Stale or corrected figures in impact_analysis.md

Not rechecked in this update: taka rate (123.0/USD), reserves ($29.5 bn), RMG output losses, e-rickshaw figures. Confirm these before any new publication.